Bitcoin Hits a Wall: Why the $94K–$95K Zone Could Make or Break This Rally
Bitcoin’s surge toward $95,000 has brought it face-to-face with one of the most significant technical roadblocks in recent memory: the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance. While recent momentum has favored bulls, key indicators are flashing caution signs. Is the rally running out of steam?
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering near the $94,000–$95,000 range, a level packed with technical confluence. Not only does this area coincide with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous all-time high, but it also aligns with high timeframe support/resistance flips and the value area of a past trading range.
But why does this matter? Because this price level is also the projected C-leg completion of an ABCD correction pattern—a classic formation in Elliott Wave Theory that signals a potential trend pause or reversal.
Understanding the ABCD Setup: Bullish Breakout or Bearish Reversal?
The ABCD pattern, now visible on Bitcoin’s 4H and daily charts, is shaping up with textbook precision:
- A-leg: Pullback from the local top
- B-leg: Recovery bounce
- C-leg: Current move toward resistance
- D-leg (projected): Potential retracement down to the $60,000–$67,000 region
This structure suggests Bitcoin could be entering the final leg of a corrective phase. What’s worrying is that this recent rally has largely been powered by short squeezes rather than organic buying volume. That makes the move vulnerable.
If Bitcoin faces rejection at this resistance zone, it could trigger the final D-leg down, resetting toward a higher lowwithin the broader bullish trend.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $94,000–$95,000 (Fibonacci, prior range boundaries)
- Support/Correction Target: $60,000–$67,000 (projected D-leg zone)
- Invalidation of Bearish Case: Clean breakout above $95K with strong volume
So far, volume has been inconsistent, another reason for caution. Bulls need a decisive breakout beyond $95K to invalidate the ABCD structure and aim for fresh all-time highs. Failing that, the market could revisit lower support zones to establish a macro base.
All Eyes on Volume and Structure
This is a defining moment for Bitcoin. The $95K level is more than a psychological threshold—it’s a battleground for bulls and bears. If this resistance holds, expect a measured pullback. But if broken with conviction, the path toward uncharted highs remains open.
For now, the prudent move may be to wait and watch.
