ETH, the currency that runs the Ethereum blockchain, nears a price level that has longtime historical significance against Bitcoin, and if history is any guide, a potential breakout could be imminent.
ETH/BTC Fractal Mirrors 2019 Pre-Rally Setup
Currently trading around 0.019 BTC, the ETH/BTC pair is inching toward 0.016 BTC—a level that marked the bottom in September 2019 before ETH surged nearly 450% over the following year.
That move came after a brutal correction from Ethereum’s 2017 highs, driven by the collapse of the ICO boom and a broader market reset. Today, the setup is eerily similar.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Oversold
- Trend Structure: Long stretches under key moving averages
- Drawdown: Over 80% from 2021 highs
- Dominance: Bitcoin is once again in the driver’s seat amid ETF flows and institutional demand
This fractal pattern has caught the attention of analysts who believe ETH could soon bounce—if history repeats.
Resistance Breaking Down?
According to chart analyst Jimie, ETH/BTC is now testing a long-standing curved resistance that’s held since December 2021.
“We might see an end of this bearish parabola,” Jimie noted. “If this curve breaks, it could be the start of something big.”
If ETH/BTC breaks above the resistance, the next major move could take ETH back toward the 0.04 BTC zone—a potential 100%+ gain in BTC terms, which historically has translated to even larger gains in USD value.
Vitalik Buterin Proposes ‘Simpler Ethereum’
Adding fuel to the bullish case is Vitalik Buterin’s proposal to simplify Ethereum’s architecture in a bid to make the network as efficient and maintainable as Bitcoin within five years. The proposal includes:
- Streamlined protocol layers
- More modular smart contract standards
- Faster state transition mechanisms
One analyst called this “the most bullish thing for ETH”, especially as Ethereum faces increasing pressure from emerging competitors like Solana and modular blockchains.
Not Everyone’s Convinced
Adam Back, an OG Bitcoin developer and vocal Ethereum skeptic, isn’t buying the hype.
He argues that Ethereum’s account-based system is too complex and that Proof-of-Stake (PoS) centralizes power among a few large holders. Back insists Ethereum is “technically bloated”, and said bluntly:
“At this point, just flush ETH before it hits zero and buy Bitcoin.”
Back’s criticisms echo a common refrain among Bitcoin maximalists: Ethereum’s flexibility may be its Achilles heel.
What Comes Next?
All eyes are now on 0.016 BTC. This zone represents the last major bottom for ETH/BTC and could act as a launchpad or a breakdown point. If the fractal plays out, Ethereum could enter its next major leg up against Bitcoin.
But if bearish momentum persists and support gives out, Adam Back’s warnings could prove prophetic, at least in the short term.
