Former President Donald Trump’s second non-consecutive term in office is off to a turbulent start in the financial markets. As of Monday’s close, the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 8% since his January inauguration, making it the worst 100-day stock market performance for a U.S. president since the 1970s.
Though the administration continues to promote its agenda with confidence — hosting rallies, rolling out executive orders, and asserting “American strength” — the market reaction suggests Wall Street remains unconvinced. This historic decline, coupled with renewed recessionary concerns, has prompted Trump and his inner circle to adopt a trio of rhetorical strategies that alternate between justification, deflection, and minimization.
Market Impact: A Historically Grim Benchmark
Historically, new administrations enjoy a grace period from investors, with optimism often driving short-term gains. That was the case for Presidents like Barack Obama in 2009 and Joe Biden in 2021. But Trump’s second term has diverged sharply. The last comparable downturn occurred during President Gerald Ford’s early tenure, following the Watergate scandal, and during Richard Nixon’s second term amid economic malaise.
The causes of the current slump are multifaceted. Chief among them is the renewed tariff regime, which has unsettled international markets and reignited concerns of a global trade war. Trump’s sharp pivot toward aggressive economic nationalism — reminiscent of his first term — has rattled businesses reliant on global supply chains.
Expert Opinion: “Tariffs Have a Cost”
“There’s no question that markets are reacting to uncertainty,” said Ellen Baker, chief strategist at Brookstone Capital. “Tariffs, especially when reintroduced without clear parameters or timelines, depress corporate earnings expectations and reduce investor appetite for risk.”
Despite these concerns, Trump maintains that the downturn is a temporary correction in what he describes as a long-term growth arc. Speaking from Florida earlier this month, Trump likened the U.S. economy to “a patient recovering from surgery” — suggesting that the pain is necessary and expected.
Strategic Response 1: The ‘Transition Period’ Narrative
The most common explanation from the Trump administration is that the economic pain is by design — a short-term adjustment phase that will eventually yield long-term gains. In this framing, tariff pressures and regulatory rollbacks are surgical interventions that will ultimately restore economic “vitality.”
“Just give it time,” Trump said during a press gaggle on April 2, echoing the sentiment. “The American economy is going to roar back.”
Strategic Response 2: Diversion to Other Factors
At times, Trump officials have shifted the conversation away from markets entirely, citing external variables to explain the losses. These include weaknesses in the tech sector, ongoing disruptions in healthcare due to regulatory uncertainty, and even lingering impacts from the previous Biden administration.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed a 1,000-point drop in the Dow as “not unusual,” blaming overreactions to AI sector volatility and supply chain recalibrations.
Strategic Response 3: Downplaying the Market’s Significance
Perhaps the most revealing — and least consistent — strategy is to minimize the importance of the stock market altogether. When pressed on April 10 about the steep declines, Trump responded, “I haven’t seen it,” and quickly passed the question to Bessent.
Yet that posture has proven fleeting. On days when stocks recover slightly, Trump is quick to claim credit, tweeting praise for “booming markets” and insisting his economic vision is working. This inconsistency has drawn criticism from economists and political opponents alike, who argue that such messaging sows confusion among investors and constituents.
What’s Next: More Volatility or Stabilization?
Looking ahead, analysts warn that continued market volatility is likely, especially as trade negotiations remain unresolved and inflationary pressures persist. Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical tensions, and corporate earnings will all play pivotal roles in determining whether this 100-day slump marks a bottom or a prelude to deeper losses.
Still, some investors are cautiously optimistic. “Markets can rebound quickly if policy clarity improves,” said Jon Reyes, portfolio manager at Atlas Strategies. “But mixed messages from the administration don’t help.”
As Trump enters his second 100 days, he faces a dual challenge: reassuring markets while maintaining his combative political style — a tightrope that could further shape investor sentiment and define the economic trajectory of his term.
